Here's a question. I'll have to fill in the background a bit. And I'm not sure that I have all of the details right. But I'm pretty sure it's accurate in general.
Guys like Ransom E Olds, James P Buick, Louis Chevrolet, John and Horace Dodge and Henry Ford were good automotive engineers. But they lacked capital to work with. So they had to be good salesmen as well. They had to entice investors.
There were some others, William C Durant comes to mind, who weren't automotive engineers. But they jumped into the same game. Enticing investors and trying to start up auto companies. I think Walter P Chrysler fits in this group. I don't really know. But I don't think he was quite the automotive engineer that the first group was.
And, to be honest, I don't know a thing about Ransom E Olds' financing. But in 1903, 1904, Oldsmobile was easily the biggest auto company on the planet. (Maybe Daimler was some sort of competition. But they're a 'maybe' and they're the only one.) I doubt if Oldsmobile got that big on Ransom's capital or profit. I'd bet on outside investors.
(And as I'm working with these ideas, I'm becoming a bit more optimistic about Elio. I'll explain why shortly.)
Both William C Durant and Henry Ford had a few episodes where they'd attract investment and then fight so badly with their investors that the whole thing would fall apart. One of those fights, involving Henry, ended up spawning Cadillac. But Henry was cut loose and left to start over. He did okay in the end, as we all know.
But...anyway....how in the world did all of these guys attract that much investment? At least part of the answer is that there was a bit of money in Michigan at that time looking for some place to be invested. Money that had accumulated in a relative handful of families from the previous century or so as a result of fur and timber trade. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some profit made from mining that was beginning to accumulate as well. Though I suppose the iron ore industry was only in its infancy at that point.
So.....perhaps these guys had an advantage over Paul Elio in that there was some capital looking for investment right there at just the right time. But, on the other hand, capital is more fluid and moves around the entire globe more easily than it did back then. So it could be argued that Elio has the advantage of a larger pool to draw from.
So why hasn't he attracted the investment he needs to get this show on the road? Well...maybe the possible investors have no faith in his product or business model.
But maybe there's more to it than that. Consider; the Ford Motor Company was founded in 1905, 1906, something like that. Chevrolet was founded in 1906, 1907, something like that. It took a couple of years for Henry to get the Model T on the market. And I guess it took off like a rocket. But that's fairly exceptional. I think it took Chevrolet something on the order of fifteen years or so to become strong enough to threaten Ford's dominance.
So....the Elio was something like a dream five years ago and has, at least, been in development for the last two or three years. Maybe my impatience is not justified. Perhaps something innovative like the Elio needs a bit more than two or three years to be fully developed. And maybe production really will start in 2016 on a product that actually is ready to hit the road.
The argument, mentioned above, between Henry Ford and his investors might be illustrative. The gist of the argument appears to have been that the investors wanted something gotten to market in order to start generating revenue. Henry wanted to perfect a product before putting it on the market. (Why didn't they hash this out before starting? I don't know. But reckless business deals are not unheard of.)
But this perfected, or at lest developed, product that Henry wanted sounds a bit to me like the Model T. This argument took place in 1903. Henry started over and got the Model T to market in five years. But the Model T, remember, is an exceptional success story.
So perhaps I ought to be more optimistic for Elio for a couple more years at least.
Go, Paul, go! You could be the Henry Ford of the twenty-first Century if you do this right.