There is one thing I've seen that makes me think the Ebike landscape could change for the better.
I don't know if anybody is familiar with the top of the line Carrier residential gas furnaces. Carrier has a variable speed blower with a motor controller that seems to me like back engineered alien technology.
There's also another model called the deluxe 2 speed. It has a normal 2 speed motor like what everyone has in their gas furnace. It actually has 3 or 4 speeds that you select 2 of on install. Say 850 rpm and 1,100. The variable speed just has a range between ..........BS ALERT..........When I think about it I don't really know what speeds they run, I just know full speed is about 1,100 rpm. I think they have about 20 something speeds. It takes 3 computers to run one motor. What's important is both motors do the same amount of work.
A high efficient 2 speed, 3/4 hp blower motor running a full load draws about 17 amps.
The variable speed motor pulling the same load only draws about 3.5 amps. That's a mind blowing reduction that blows my little mind. You can't do that, but they're doing it.
A normal 2 speed motor costs me about $95. The variable speed motor with a controller, which you have to buy with the motor costs $700. That's my wholesale cost. If you have to buy one it's $1,400 to you, labor is extra.
That seems like the perfect technology for battery power. Does a lot of work, doesn't use a lot of power.
I know this is the real deal. I acquired a used variable speed blower and took it to my good friend who is recently retired from Texas Instruments. He's very interested in this blower. He told me that about 10 years ago TI was considering making controllers for motor bicycles. He was part of the project. He said they were going to build fancy ones like this Carrier one seems to be. He told me they shelved the project because they didn't think the market was big enough to justify making them.
Now it's driving him crazy not being able to take this one apart to find out how it tics. It's potted so we'd have to destroy it. Now I'm supposed to get a second one for our secret lab.
So I guess this could mean the technology exists right now to make a better Ebike but we're now getting to see any of it yet. This seems like a much bigger deal than better batterys.
The day must not be too far off though.
Another important thing I think we'll all find interesting is the controllers are programable. You'll be able to buy your government approved, 20 mph Ebike and then take it to a performance shop for "Tuning", for off road use only " ". They'll just hook it to a lap top and make enhancements.
I'd pay $5,000 right now for a motor bicycle that looks a good as KiM's, can go 30 mph for 120 miles on a charge, and weighs no more than 80 lbs. That's all I ask.